+37 Most people have a hard time explaining, (or even understanding) the simple math behind the Monty Paradox. Amirite?

by Anonymous 11 years ago

I understand it, but it is indeed difficult to explain. It has something to do with having a higher chance of picking the incorrect answer the first time, thus making the other option statistically a better choice after one of the incorrect options is eliminated.

by Anonymous 11 years ago

No you just look at it in groups instead of individual doors. There's a 67% chance you were wrong the first time, right? So there's a 67% chance it was behind one of the other two doors. When he reveals the goat, there's still a 67% chance you were wrong, but if that is so, then the car is behind the last door. When he shows the goat, the chance goes to the last door, not split between your door and the last door.

by Anonymous 11 years ago

How is that not exactly what I just said?

by Anonymous 11 years ago

OHH I thought you meant at first it's 33/33/33 and now it's 50/50 and 50>33

by Anonymous 11 years ago

What kind of sick joke...? http://ctrlv.in/171358 Yeah I understand it, but it just seems so...weird.

by Anonymous 11 years ago

but if you click "ok" it still works

by Anonymous 11 years ago

It had to be beaten into my head... but I finally understood.

by Anonymous 11 years ago

I'm sorry, but what's the paradox?

by Anonymous 11 years ago

It's called Monty's paradox. It is not a paradox. It is just confusing to some people that: give three doors - choose one - one of the unchosen doors is opened. If you stay with your original selection you chances are still one third, if you switch your chances are 2/3 not 1/2 as expected.

by Anonymous 11 years ago

Yeah I stayed with my original choice and it was correct 11/20 times. Continued on, 24/47. I don't think it makes sense, the third choice should have literally 0 bearing on what remains. It doesn't make sense that you only have a 33% chance with one door, and a 66% chance with the other. It's 50/50, the third door has no matter. I know how they do it mathematically, I just don't agree with it, since I find it more of a theoretical/philosophic paradox than a mathematical one.

by Anonymous 11 years ago