+87

We should be terrified of the covid-19 if we live the USA, amirite?

This is lunacy we have a vaccine for crying out loud. We know the main method of spreading. We have masks, this just cannot be happening. This is not happening. Sigh, this is happening despite my protests.

"A top COVID-19 model predicts 150,000 more deaths in the U.S. in the next month as the country heads into what is anticipated to be the worst phase of the pandemic.

Projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show the death toll over the next month could be far beyond that of December, which set a record at about 77,500.

Overall, nearly 348,000 people in the U.S. have died from the coronavirus, and there have been more than 20.1 million cases in the country since the outbreak began. "

We have a vaccine, front-line workers should be embracing it with arms wide open. Arggghhh!

"Dec. 31, 2020, 3:15 PM EST
By Doha Madani

A large percentage of front-line workers in hospitals and nursing homes have refused to take the Covid-19 vaccine, a hurdle for public health officials as the country struggles to roll out inoculations around the country."

Sources.
https://thehill.com/policy/heal...LYk_vT9Fm9610U
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us...ggles-n1252617

COVID-19 model predicts 150,000 more US deaths within the next month | TheHillA top COVID-19 model predicts 150,000 more deaths in the U.S. in the next month as the country heads into what is anticipated to be the worst phase of the pandemic.https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/532356-covid-19-model-predicts-150000-more-us-deaths-within-the-next-month?fbclid=IwAR3toC0VMR1ISImzoBJ3UnBtWk9qjqY0W7-WeiCRPZk3YLYk_vT9Fm9610U
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If one feels the need to be terrified, there are about 11 countries in the world where one should be even more terrified than in the US, especially Belgium.
 
https://www.statista.com/statis...n-inhabitants/

@Thinkerbell If one feels the need to be terrified, there are about 11 countries in the world where one should be even more...

Plenty of places are doing way better for example Canada has 422.46 deaths per 100 million and Germany 418.5. Compare that to the USA's 1,065.95. About 2.5 as bad.

There are places worse than the USA and your source is terrific, least bias high factual reporting. Yes, Belgium is worse than the USA at 1,715.51. The problem is your using a not as bad fallacy, also known as fallacy of relative privation. So what if the situation is even worse in Belgium? This only serves as a distraction from the problem in the USA.

Furthermore, your statement doesn't nothing to undermine the models that predict January will be twice as bad as December. Now compare to New Zealand a nation who has the virus under control and almost entirely eliminated the virus. "5.08". That's right, 5.08 deaths per million and only 25 deaths total in a nation of nearly five million.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Not_as_bad_as

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +5Reply

Not terrified in the least bit, and never will be.

@DandyDon Not terrified in the least bit, and never will be.

Many covid-19 deniers last words on their deaths bed are along the lines of covid-19 is a hoax. This is while they are literally gasping their last breath and dying of covid-19.

"South Dakota nurse says many patients deny the coronavirus exists — right up until death" By
Paulina Villegas
November 16, 2020 at 5:22 p.m. EST

"“Their last dying words are, ‘This can’t be happening. It’s not real,’” Doering said, adding that some patients prefer to believe that they have pneumonia or other diseases rather than covid-19, despite seeing their positive test results."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/...virus-deniers/

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +5Reply
@Thinkerbell Tut-tut, Vegan... I thought you weren't supposed to rely on anecdotal evidence...

There are some differences. Yes, anecdotal evidence is the weakest form of evidence, but sometimes it is the only evidence available, particularly for mundane occurrences. For example, if Bob said that Jane crossed the road, this would be anecdotal evidence, but no more evidence would be necessary. A video recording of Jane crossing the road would be overkill.

Yes a video of the patients would add credibility but it would be overkill and most likely a breach of privacy and trust.

Next, there are some differences. For example, I used the source of the washingtonpost. Now the washingtonpost's credibility is on the line if said nurse lied. In comparison DandyDon and Anonymousmouse provide no sources.

Second, is plausibility. It is common knowledge that covid-19 deniers exist. Therefore, it is plausible that covid-19 deniers would still be in denial on their deathbeds.

"One of the more common responses to disaster is the psychological defense of denial—the problem doesn’t exist. "

Matthew J. Edlund M.D. The Power of Rest
COVID-19 and the Pleasures of Denial
"There's nothing to worry about. Really."
Posted May 14, 2020

Compare that to a massive conspiracy theory involving test kit fraud, this conspiracy is named "casedemic", the plausibility is low. In the end extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. My claim is mundane and thus mundane anecdotal evidence is sufficient.

Finally, people misuse logical fallacies all the time, in this case the fallacy I am accused of is the Anecdotal Fallacy. I am confident that I have not misused anecdotal evidence while DandyDon and Anoymousmouse have. Thinkerbell is using a logical fallacy called the fallacy fallacy or fallacy misidentification . Which simply put is incorrectly labeling a logically valid statement as logically invalid.

Sources.
https://www.psychologytoday.com...easures-denial
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fallacy_fallacy

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +11Reply
@vegan There are some differences. Yes, anecdotal evidence is the weakest form of evidence, but sometimes it is the only...

"Yes, anecdotal evidence is the weakest form of evidence, but sometimes it is the only evidence available, particularly for mundane occurrences."
 
Dying of Covid-19 is hardly mundane, nor is it a single occurrence, like "Jane crossed the road," according to Bob.
 
" I used the source of the washingtonpost. Now the washingtonpost's credibility is on the line if said nurse lied."
 
Still, they are relying on the word of the nurse, and didn't even bother to ask her what "many" meant. Ten per cent of her patients,? Twenty? Fifty? Eighty?
And why not interview ten nurses, to see if they tell similar stories?
I thought reporters were supposed to confirm their stories... oh wait, the Post was careful to say "South Dakota nurse says..." [Read: this story is hearsay.]

@Thinkerbell "Yes, anecdotal evidence is the weakest form of evidence, but sometimes it is the only evidence available...

I think there is sufficient evidence. You don't agree, we are arguing over what constitutes an effective threshold of evidence. Note, you saying that this story is hearsay invalidates DandyDon's and Anoymousmouse about false positives comments as hearsay.

Covid-19 denial is real and has consequences.

"The Psychology of Coronavirus Denial
“Motivated reasoning” is what social scientists call the process of deciding what evidence to accept based on the conclusion one prefers. "
The Conversation Published 25 June 2020

Here's the same article on USAtoday, which adds credibility to the story, not just one news source wrote about people dying in denial.

"'It's not real': In South Dakota, which has shunned masks and other COVID rules, some people die in denial, nurse says
Joel Shannon
USA TODAY"

Here's the name of the nurse Jodi Doering. Here's a direct quote from Doering as to avoid hearsay.

"I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real." Doering's Twitter.

Here's a video of Jodi Doering's interview on CNN. Nurse is on at 1:30 in video.

YouTube video thumbnail

Thank you for continuing the conversation.

Sources.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/...al/6330791002/
https://www.snopes.com/news/202...avirus-denial/
https://twitter.com/JodiOrth/st...71329555292162
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/...newday-vpx.cnn

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +4Reply
@vegan I think there is sufficient evidence. You don't agree, we are arguing over what constitutes an effective threshold...

“Here's the same article on USAtoday, which adds credibility to the story, not just one news source wrote about people dying in denial.”
 
Yes, and the USAToday article says “some,” as opposed to the “many” the Washington Post reported.
 
“Here's a video of Jodi Doering's interview on CNN. Nurse is on at 1:30 in video.”
 
Yes, and the video also says “some,” without ever getting around to what “some” means, in actual hard numbers.
In fact, at 3:54, Jodi says, “Now that’s not everybody. We have a lot of patients who are very, very grateful for their care… but unfortunately, that’s not what I’m remembering right now…”
Vague, unspecific (and selective memory, perhaps?), and certainly no justification for the WaPo’s use of the word “many” in its story headline.

@Thinkerbell “Here's the same article on USAtoday, which adds credibility to the story, not just one news source wrote about...

This original branch was directed at DandyDon saying he wasn't terrified and never will be. I agreed that DandyDon won't ever be terrified of covid-19, in the sense that people are dying in denial. Perhaps the word many was too strong and subjective. Nevertheless, DandyDon's statement is believable.

There are more examples other than Doering's testimony.

"33-year-old coronavirus denier with 1.1 million followers dies of COVID-19"
By Chris Smith @chris_writes
October 19th, 2020 at 6:27 PM brg.com

'An Ohio man died from complications related to the COVID-19 coronavirus disease weeks after he downplayed the virus on social media. " Dan Evon Published 22 April 2020 Snopes.com

Now to be fair, some at the last minute recognize the covid-19 threat right before they die, but not all. Some of the best evidence is instagram and twitter for how the individual felt in their last moments.

"“I want to share how I got sick and to strongly warn everyone,” Stuzhuk wrote in Russian on Instagram, via The Sun. “I was one who thought that Covid does not exist… Until I got sick.”" brg.com

"An American who insisted that Covid is a hoax has reportedly died from the virus and left behind a series of social media posts that document his views."Rokas Laurinavičius and Justinas Keturka boredpanda

I'm not sure how reliable boredpanda is.

Hermain Cain was a covid-19 denier and died.

"Herman Cain Died of COVID-19, Not Cancer

By Bala Thenappan

Posted on July 31, 2020
"

"Cain had posted a photo of himself at the indoor rally in Tulsa, seated closely to other attendees without a face mask."

Overall, I think most know they are sick, they are in the hospital for at least a week usually before dying. What it comes down to is do they believe it is the covid-19 or some other disease like cancer?

As for additional nurses, here you go. People with covid-19 deny it exists.

"In the spring, Michelle Schultz had a particularly difficult COVID-19 patient. The man, who was in his 60s, had come to the emergency room short of breath a few days before. Even though his oxygen levels were pretty low, he refused medication and wanted to leave the Indiana hospital without a mask on. The nurse and some of her colleagues tried convincing him to stay, but the man insisted he felt fine. Besides, he said, COVID-19 is a fake virus hospitals are using to make money." msn.com Their Patients Have COVID-19 and Still Think It’s a Hoax Angelina Chapin 11/25/2020

"Like any nurse who works in ICUs and emergency rooms, LeToya Edmonds is used to dealing with people who are angry and in denial. But while those are normal emotional responses to a serious diagnosis, Edmonds says the hostility and disbelief from her COVID-19 patients in Lawton, Oklahoma, feels different.

“A lot of them make it into a political issue,” she said. “It’s really hard to care for patients like that.”" msn.com

" While many skeptics believe in the virus once they are diagnosed, others double-down. About a month ago, she politely asked a 70-year-old man with COVID-19 who had a fever and diarrhea to cover his mouth. He pointed to the TV, where he was watching Fox, and told her “the news says these masks don’t work,” before coughing in her face. A Florida-based respiratory therapist also described being coughed and spit on by patients who didn’t take the virus seriously. “It makes my blood boil,” says Edmonds. “It’s just a constant uphill battle.”"

Let's break this down,
Premise one: covid-19 exists.
p2: covid-19 deniers exist.
p3: people sick with covid-19 deny covid-19 exists.
Conclusion: Therefore, people die of covid-19 still thinking it isn't real.

I think this is a reasonable conclusion.

Sources.
https://bgr.com/2020/10/19/coro...uk-influencer/
https://www.snopes.com/fact-che...ie-from-covid/
https://www.boredpanda.com/covi...mpaign=organic/www.factcheck.org/2020/07/herman-cain-died-of-covid-19-not-cancer/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/healt...ax/ar-BB1bmjEP

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +4Reply
@vegan This original branch was directed at DandyDon saying he wasn't terrified and never will be. I agreed that DandyDon...

"Perhaps the word many was too strong and subjective."
 
Indeed it was, but the WaPo is what it is.
I never disagreed with any of the rest.
 
Case closed.
 

@DandyDon It’s the “rules for The” snobbery, it always shows up.

Yep. Most recently by Anderson Cooper. (see 3 comments below). biggrin smilie

@Thinkerbell Whataboutism (aka tu quoque) is not a fallacy.

Tu quoque is a logical fallacy as per the two links below. I am sure you can find many more credible websites easily with a browser search that support my claim that tu quoque is a logical fallacy.

I learned something, thanks for this discussion. Whataboutism is a form of tu quoque, I didn't know that I thought it was a not as bad fallacy.

"Whataboutism (also known as Whataboutery) is a red herring version of the classic tu quoque logical fallacy — sometimes implementing the balance fallacy as well — which is employed as a propaganda technique. "

"Simply put, whataboutism refers to the bringing up of one issue in order to distract from the discussion of another. It does not apply to the comparison and analysis of two similar issues in terms such as why some are given more social prominence than others. " rationalwiki

I assert that Tu quoque is a fallacy and whataboutism is a variant of tu quoque.

https://www.thoughtco.com/tu-qu...allacy-1692568
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Tu_quoque
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Whataboutism

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +3Reply
@vegan Tu quoque is a logical fallacy as per the two links below. I am sure you can find many more credible websites...

The usual tu quoque scenario generally goes as follows:
A accuses B of doing x, where x is something bad.
B responds that A also does x.

And the usual explanation of the alleged fallacy is that since A also does x, B claims that
x is irrelevant/false and A is a hypocrite.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Tu_quoque

This explanation is a straw man (speaking of fallacies).
In actual fact, the usual situation is that B does NOT claim x being bad is necessarily false or irrelevant.
What B DOES say is that A, by his own actions, proves that EITHER A does not himself believe x is bad, OR A believes x is bad, but violates the rules against doing x for A’s own self-interest.
In either case, B is NOT saying that A is necessarily wrong about B doing x, or that x is bad, but that A is an unreliable  witness, not to be taken seriously one way or the other;
A either doesn’t believe what he himself is saying, OR he has a conflict of interest, or perhaps both.
 
And this conclusion is certainly NOT a fallacy.
 
Example: Even stupid Gov Newsom realized he had seriously damaged his credibility when he was caught sumptuously dining at a super-upscale restaurant, in violation of his own rules. Which restaurant? (Hint: it wasn’t the Olive Garden.)  biggrin smilie
 
YouTube video thumbnail

@Thinkerbell The usual tu quoque scenario generally goes as follows: A accuses B of doing x, where x is something bad. B...

If you want to argue that tu quoque is not a fallacy go ahead. I've made my case for it being a fallacy from credible links. I don't think discussing whether or not tu quoque is a fallacy anymore will serve any purpose.

Whataboutism is a favorite technique of the Soviet Union.

"Whataboutism (also known as Whataboutery) is a red herring version of the classic tu quoque logical fallacy — sometimes implementing the balance fallacy as well — which is employed as a propaganda technique. It is used as a diversionary tactic to shift the focus off of an issue and avoid having to directly address it. This technique works by twisting criticism back onto the critic and in doing so revealing the original critic's hypocrisy. The usual syntax is "What about...?" followed by an issue on the opponent's side which is vaguely, if at all, related to the original issue. An old favorite of the Soviet Union,[2] the strategy was originally used in the form of "And at your place, they hang black people."[3] In recent years, whataboutism made a comeback in Vladimir Putin's Russia (since the Russians seemingly learned all the wrong lessons from the Cold War), and has also seen a rise in usage by Donald Trump and his support base.[4] " rationalwiki retrieved Jan 8th 2020

A highly functional Democracy should strive to avoid using Whataboutism. So what if a random Democrat broke his own rules and apologized later? What does this have to do with the original post? Nothing, this is a red herring. Frankly, I am embarrassed that I spent as much time and energy on this red herring as I have.

Here's a right-center source that confirms the 150,000 number, marketwatch.

"‘We should expect, without further action, that as the new strain takes hold, we will see an additional 10 million infections in the U.S. between now and end of February and during that time, we could easily see an additional 100,000 to 150,000 deaths.’
— Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean and professor of health services, policy and practice, Brown University School of Public Health "

Image in content

Sources.
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Whataboutism
https://www.marketwatch.com/sto...rns-2021-01-06

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +5Reply
@vegan If you want to argue that tu quoque is not a fallacy go ahead. I've made my case for it being a fallacy from...

" I've made my case for it being a fallacy from credible links."
 
You have merely appealed to authority, and I have given the reasons your cited authority is wrong. You have not refuted my reasons.
 
"So what if a random Democrat broke his own rules and apologized later? "
 
The governor of the most populous state in the Union is hardly a "random Democrat."
And he only apologized because he was caught; do you suppose he would have voluntarily come forward and apologized otherwise?
 
As I pointed out, and you have not refuted, Newsom's violation of his own rules seriously damaged his credibility, which is what tu quoque is really all about, your straw-man links notwithstanding.
 
"Here's a right-center source that confirms the 150,000 number, marketwatch."
" ‘We should expect, without further action, that as the new strain takes hold, we will see an additional 10 million infections in the U.S. between now and end of February and during that time, we could easily see an additional 100,000 to 150,000 deaths.’
— Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean and professor of health services, policy and practice, Brown University School of Public Health "
 
You really should read your own sources more carefully.  Jha said 100,000 to 150,000 deaths between now (early Jan) and the end of February 
You, on the other hand, have been saying 150,000 (or 200,000, since the Capitol invasion) for the month of January alone.

@Thinkerbell " I've made my case for it being a fallacy from credible links."   You have merely appealed to authority, and I...

"You have merely appealed to authority, and I have given the reasons your cited authority is wrong. You have not refuted my reasons." Thinkerbell

No I haven't refuted your arguments, but when we disagree on such a basic premise I feel like we are talking different languages. As for an appeal to authority, that's interesting that you would accept one form of logical fallacy as legitimate, appeal to authority, but not another tu quoque.

This is sort of like saying exponents are real but square roots are a lie! Or a geometry analogy would be that squares and rectangles are true geometric shapes, but that cylinders are not real geometry. One debate I had we spent most of the time arguing whether or not the square cube law was legitimate. At least a few flat Earthers believe Australia is a ruse.

"Australia doesn't exist, flat-Earthers say
Take a deep breath because this is about to get wild. Flat-Earthers have got it in their head that the entire land mass of Australia is a ruse to fool the world into believing the Earth is a globe. But what about the 24 million people who live there? Well, Aussies are actors employed by NASA, flat-Earthers say, hired to complete the massive cover up." Stars Insider
04-06-2018

As you can see, this argument that a tu quoque is not a fallacy is so off base it has thrown me off. At the risk of of accidentally using an ad hominem, I do not know if I can take your arguments seriously anymore. When a person makes such an outrageous statement x, a person cannot help but think to their selves, is this person being serious, is this a joke, is this a troll, a sea lion, or does this person legitimately believe outrageous statement x?

Again, no insult if you are being legitimate, and really don't think tu quoque is a logically fallacy.

You say that my links to thoughtco and rationalwiki proving that tu quoque is a logical fallacy, are somehow straw men, you did explain, but again, the argument was so off base that I ignored it the first time.

I'm not sure, the headline says by February and the quote said between now and the end of February.

"U.S. could see up to 150,000 more COVID-19 deaths by February as new strain takes hold, expert warns " marketwatch Published: Jan. 7, 2021 at 6:15 a.m. ET

I think at this point this post has gotten really cumbersome. I'm spending a lot of time scrolling up and down the page. If you are serious, I think it is time for one of us to create a new post and discuss whether tu quoque is a logical fallacy. I put the link to the new post below.

Source.
https://www.marketwatch.com/sto...rns-2021-01-06
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/...ers/ss-AAyc13L
https://www.amirite.com/841468

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +5Reply
@vegan "You have merely appealed to authority, and I have given the reasons your cited authority is wrong. You have not...

“As for an appeal to authority, that's interesting that you would accept one form of logical fallacy as legitimate, appeal to authority, but not another tu quoque.”
This is sort of like saying exponents are real but square roots are a lie!”
   
Not so. Appeal to authority is NOT a fallacy IF (but ONLY if) the authority is reliable. I have already explained why your tu quoque authorities are not reliable; they PRESUPPOSE that B will draw a fallacious conclusion. I have shown that B will not necessarily do so, a scenario your authorities seem not to have considered.
   
“You say that my links to thoughtco and rationalwiki proving that tu quoque is a logical fallacy, are somehow straw men, you did explain, but again, the argument was so off base that I ignored it the first time.”

Image in content
 
Off base?  How so?  Your simply saying so doesn't make it so.
Contrary to what your sources assume, I say B doesn’t necessarily say that because A also does X, therefore A’s claim is necessarily false. That would indeed be a fallacy.
But I say an intelligent B will say that because A doesn’t practice what he preaches, therefore A’s claim about X is not necessarily true. A’s claim MIGHT be true, but nothing in A’s actions PROVE it to be true. One would have to go OUTSIDE A’s and B’s discussion to determine the truth or falsehood of X.
 
So this tu quoque scenario is a STANDOFF, A’s claim being proved NEITHER true NOR false.
   
Note also that “tu quoque” [“you too”] by itself is an incomplete description of the alleged fallacy, since it omits any mention of B’s [assumed] fallacious conclusion that A’s statement is necessarily false. A more accurate Latin phrase for your authorities’ assumed scenario might be styled “tu quoque, ergo falsitas” [“you too, therefore falsehood”], or something like that.
Lacking that addition, I say my scenario is not only more plausible, it is more interesting to mull over as well.
 
Now, kindly tell me why I am wrong, and please, use your own arguments instead of simply reiterating your sources, time after time. I have already explained several times why they are inadequate.
   
P.S. I would have replied on your tu quoque post, only it seems to have been taken down.

@Thinkerbell “As for an appeal to authority, that's interesting that you would accept one form of logical fallacy as...

My new post works fine for me now.

Your misusing the appeal to authority. Rejecting scientific consensus will-nilly is a great example of how to misuse the appeal to authority fallacy. Flat Earthers and climate change deniers will discard mountains of evidence casually under appeal to authority.

Any evidence from NASA including astronauts who have been to the moon and back, appeal to authority. Satellite pictures of Earth, photo shopped and if you say but they are official and verified by NASA again appeal to authority.

The same with climate change deniers, many as soon as I mention the 97% scientific consensus blurt out "appeal to authority."

Here's how the appeal to authority is supposed to work. Let's say a Nobel prize winner with all sorts of honors and medals makes a statement that is completely false and out of their specialization. To claim that their statement is true merely because they have a Nobel prize is an appeal to authority.

The same goes with anybody out of their specialization, Geologists for example sometimes sign petitions stating climate change is false. This is a great example of an appeal to authority. The person is a fake expert in climate science and is only an expert in Geology.

Yet, a common technique of climate denial is to get a petition with tens of thousands of scientists stating that climate change is wrong. The problem is none of these scientists are experts, and all are fake experts. The petition of thousands of scientists is an appeal to authority.

In contrast, when 97% of the world's experts, climate change scientists agree this the proper use of authority. That's why a scientific consensus is incredible powerful and cannot be dismissed willy-nilly.

Second, your cherry picking the definition of tu quoque. Just as a word can have different meanings, so can a fallacy, you picked one definition and committed a straw man of your own and it set it ablaze.

Effectively you attacked the wrong definition. You seemed to focus on the rationalwiki and your own link wikipedia, skipping the thoughtco.

" Example III

"The tu quoque fallacy occurs when one charges another with hypocrisy or inconsistency in order to avoid taking the other's position seriously. For example:

Mother: You should stop smoking. It's harmful to your health.
Daughter: Why should I listen to you? You started smoking when you were 16!

[Here], the daughter commits the tu quoque fallacy. She dismisses her mother's argument because she believes her mother is speaking in a hypocritical manner. While the mother may indeed be inconsistent, this does not invalidate her argument.""
By Richard Nordquist
Updated October 31, 2019

You are talking about the Democrats hypocrisy. Yet, it does not invalidate the argument I've made nor Gov Newsom's warnings about covid-19.

As for outside evidence there is plenty. The over 300k deaths in less than year from covid-19 in just one country, USA. The 77,500 deaths in the USA in just December of 2020.

Image in content

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tu_quoque
https://www.thoughtco.com/tu-qu...allacy-1692568

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +4Reply
@vegan My new post works fine for me now. Your misusing the appeal to authority. Rejecting scientific consensus...

In the first part of your comment you go on and on for hundreds of words, essentially repeating what I had previously summarized in less than twenty words, concerning appeal to authority. And no, I was not misusing the term; I showed where your authorities were inadequate.
 
So, to proceed to tu quoque:
“…, your cherry picking the definition of tu quoque. Just as a word can have different meanings, so can a fallacy, you picked one definition and committed a straw man of your own and it set it ablaze. Effectively you attacked the wrong definition. You seemed to focus on the rationalwiki and your own link wikipedia, skipping the thoughtco.”
 
I think you also used the wiki link as a source, but no matter; your thoughtco link is just as flawed.
 
From thoughtco:
"The tu quoque fallacy occurs when one charges another with hypocrisy or inconsistency in order to avoid taking the other's position seriously. For example:
Mother: You should stop smoking. It's harmful to your health.
Daughter: Why should I listen to you? You started smoking when you were 16!
[Here], the daughter commits the tu quoque fallacy. She dismisses her mother's argument because she believes her mother is speaking in a hypocritical manner. While the mother may indeed be inconsistent, this does not invalidate her argument."
 
As I have already agreed, IF (and ONLY if) the daughter absolutely concludes, on the basis of her mother’s behavior, that smoking is NOT bad for her health, that would indeed be a logical fallacy; the mother MIGHT be right, despite her behavior.
 
BUT… absent other information, the daughter is perfectly justified in not being convinced by the mother’s assertion. By her own behavior, the mother has UNDERMINED her credibility, just as Gov Newsom undermined his credibility by violating his own rules, apology or no apology.

Therefore, I maintain that tu quoque is NOT a fallacy insofar as it casts doubt on the accuser’s credibility.
 
Now please speak succinctly to this point: DID the mother, or did she NOT, undermine her credibility by her own behavior?   (Same question applies to Gov Newsom)

@Thinkerbell “As for an appeal to authority, that's interesting that you would accept one form of logical fallacy as...

Oops, I forgot about Marketwatch.
 
""U.S. could see up to 150,000 more COVID-19 deaths by February as new strain takes hold, expert warns " marketwatch Published: Jan. 7, 2021 at 6:15 a.m. ET "
 
Yes, I saw their headline, and I read Jha's "additional 100,000 to 150,000 deaths" by the end of February quote in the article.
I think it is far more plausible that the latter is accurate, and that the former is wrong, perhaps deliberately so, for the sake of sensationalism.

@DandyDon Okay....still not terrified.

Completely believable considering people deny covid-19 on their death beds.

"One of the more common responses to disaster is the psychological defense of denial—the problem doesn’t exist. COVID-19 demonstrates that denial is more than protean; it can provide (for some) pleasant and profitable experiences."
Matthew J. Edlund M.D.

Generally speaking deniers fit into two categories. Grifters and patsies.

https://www.psychologytoday.com...easures-denial

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +7Reply
@vegan Completely believable considering people deny covid-19 on their death beds. "One of the more common responses to...

Never said I deny Covid...false information doesn't terrify me.
Only a sheep would believe written words, that don't agree with what is actually seen.

You have a good time being terrified though, no-one can take that away from you.

@DandyDon Never said I deny Covid...false information doesn't terrify me. Only a sheep would believe written words, that...

Denial can also means thinking the covid-19 is over-hyped or only a bad flu, you don't have to outright think there is zero cases of covid to be a denier. In this case you are denying how bad the covid-19 is.

Your own five senses can deceive you. Stage magicians use optical illusions all the time. Flat Earthers use the zeteic method to come to the conclusion that the Earth is Flat. Yet, we both know the Earth is roughly a sphere.

" The Zetetic Method

The theory follows from a mode of thought called the "Zetetic Method," an alternative to the scientific method, developed by a 19th-century flat-earther, in which sensory observations reign supreme." Are Flat-Earthers Being Serious?

By Natalie Wolchover, Live Science Staff May 30, 2017

https://www.pcmag.com/news/21-o...ur-brain-sucks
https://www.livescience.com/243...th-belief.html

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +6Reply
@DandyDon Still not terrified.

The grifters profiting from Covid-19 conspiracy theories are happy to hear that.

"Grift forever

Another characteristic of a good conspiracy theory is that there are always grifters, who might or might not be true believers, to monetize the conspiracy theory. In the case of antivaccine movement, their names are too numerous for me to list here, but foremost among antivaccine grifters are people like Andrew Wakefield, Joe Mercola, Del Bigtree, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Just because these people are grifters, though, doesn’t mean that they aren’t also true believers to one degree or another." David Gorski on May 18, 2020

You may even help cause the end of the world.

"In the age of the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s become so much more important than it might have seemed in the past, as well. Particularly depressing to me was the first article in the Shadowland series, an article by Jeffrey Goldberg entitled “The Conspiracy Theorists Are Winning“, mainly because it’s hard for me to argue with this conclusion given the proliferation of misinformation weaponized by political actors and amplified by social media. Goldberg paints conspiratorial thinking as an existential threat, and, in the age of COVID-19, it’s a threat to us all in a way that we never recognized before. "

Aliens in the future may come to this world and saw wow "DandyDon helped caused the end of the world with conspiratorial thinking."

I don't think it is farfetched that a bunch of conspiracy theories influencing public policy could enough catastrophes that humans would become extinct. Delays in climate change could lead resource shortages and to additional wars. Anti-vaccine propaganda could cause a resurgence of polio and other diseases once tamed.

Covid-19 denial could cripple many Western nations and allow nations like China and North Korea to become superpowers. Let alone random mass shootings from virulently white supremacist disinformation. This is just the beginning. Here's a long list of about fifty or so conspiracy theories at wikipedia. Let alone that more misinformation could crop up at any time.

Believers in Sandy Hook could hoard mass arsenals of weapons and munitions that could end up in the wrong hands. One at a time we could handle individually, but the cumulative effect may be too much for humankind.

https://sciencebasedmedicine.or...-and-covid-19/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...iracy_theories

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +14Reply
@vegan The grifters profiting from Covid-19 conspiracy theories are happy to hear that. "Grift forever Another...

Pretty sure Aliens would have better things to do when they come here.....
Over watching The View.

@DandyDon Pretty sure Aliens would have better things to do when they come here..... Over watching The View.

The point is disinformation is incredibly destructive and some believe it is so dangerous that it could cause human extinction.

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +4Reply
@DandyDon Not terrified in the least bit, and never will be.

C'mon, man!  Can't you see the sky is falling again?!

@Thinkerbell C'mon, man!  Can't you see the sky is falling again?!

The covid-19 pandemic is real and deadly. This is not some sort of tin foil hat conspiracy theory that involves 5G.

"Others insist that 5G radiation weakens people’s immune systems, making them more vulnerable to infection by COVID-19. Another mutation of the 5G conspiracy theory asserts that 5G directly transmits the virus. These different 5G stories are often combined together with other COVID-19 conspiracy theories into a toxic cocktail of misinformation." The Conversation Published 12 June 2020

I still chuckle at the idea that 5G directly transmits the virus. Sometimes a little bit of humor is needed. biggrin smilie

https://www.snopes.com/news/202...-theory-began/

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +8Reply
@vegan The covid-19 pandemic is real and deadly. This is not some sort of tin foil hat conspiracy theory that involves 5G...

If any of the 5G equipment is manufactured in China, I would be much more concerned about the CCP conducting eavesdropping and spying operations with it.

@Thinkerbell If any of the 5G equipment is manufactured in China, I would be much more concerned about the CCP conducting...

I'm really uncomfortable with some of the actions that China is taking. I don't know what the CCP is but I am guessing the China Communist party? Anyways, I am against communism/socialism. I think communism and socialism are one of the same.

The idea of the government running every business is worse than the covid-19. The same people who make the laws controlling the industry is too much concentration of power and leads to rampant cronyism and corruption. Capitalism has plenty of flaws, but communism is way worse.

Enough detour, the covid-19 is a real and deadly threat. This is not the boy who cried wolf nor chicken little panicking.

"Hospitals Can’t Go On Like This

Twenty-two percent of American hospitals don’t have enough workers right now.
Alexis C. Madrigal
November 17, 2020"

Hospitals are having massive shortages and ice rinks are being uses as temporary morgues. To think otherwise relies upon conspiratorial thinking and or a rejection of solid evidence. I wonder how many covid-19 deniers are wearing tin foil hats? maniac smilie

The cabals comes for you all a bunch of satanic pedophiles Democrats are abducting your children and sucking their blood. 5G networks are directly transmitting the virus. Aliens have began their invasion of Earth.

The covid-19 was developed in a lab in China. All of this aided by the help of LGBTQ+ and the global elite. Global elite = Jews by the way.

Remember the Covid-19 is a Chines genetically engineered weapon that will be white genocide the virus is transmitting via 5G which is over-hyped and just a bad flu, so as Del Bigtree says let us catch this cold, and the covid-19 is completely non-existent and is a plandemic and casedemic. The lockdowns are only for control reasons against a non-existent virus. Btw, the virus is good for you, so be sure to infect yourself and everyone you can.

Whatever you do don't get a vaccine and wear mask because the covid-19 vaccine will alter your DNA and masks will deprive you of oxygen. Your only hope is Dr. Mercola, Del Bigtree, and of course the ultimate champion of freedom Trump.

Of course the best way to do this is to go to Washington as a member of the Proud Boys. Before you go be sure to buy lots of products from Dr. Mercola including Melatonin a surefire way to save yourself from covid-19.

Sources.
https://www.theatlantic.com/hea...ortage/617128/
https://www.splcenter.org/hatew...ow-about-qanon

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +4Reply
@Thinkerbell C'mon, man!  Can't you see the sky is falling again?!

I’m not worried, I have a mask and there’s a beauty salon, I can hide in if necessary.
I stay away from churches and mom and pop stores, bars.
Covid knows to not mess with you in a Walmart, Lowe’s, Target etc. hehe smilie

Image in content

@DandyDon I’m not worried, I have a mask and there’s a beauty salon, I can hide in if necessary. I stay away from...

Covid-19 has hurt many business, including black owned business disproportionately.

"The Covid-19 Crisis Has Wiped Out Nearly Half Of Black Small Businesses
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa"

"Black-owned businesses were more than twice as likely to shutter as their white counterparts, the report found. " forbes

This is due to the virus, not lockdowns. Even if we had no shutdowns, many businesses would be gone. Sars-2 thrives in enclosed spaces. Furthermore, Walmart sells essentials like food. Eating out at a bar and drinking is not essential.

Many churches have adapted by having zoom meeting or other virtual events.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/pe...h=bfee94043108

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +7Reply
@vegan Covid-19 has hurt many business, including black owned business disproportionately. "The Covid-19 Crisis Has...

Dems specialty groups have burned down just as many black businesses while not using social distancing.
Why didn't they have zoom meetings instead?

@DandyDon Dems specialty groups have burned down just as many black businesses while not using social distancing. Why didn't...

Do you have any numbers to verify what you are stating? Yes, it was sad that BLM didn't not use social distancing, this inevitably led to more covid-19. At least they wore masks though.

I think in the end they were too angry about the murder of George Floyd by up to four white police officers. Those businesses that got damaged by the rioting and covid-19 cases were the fault of these four officers, systemic racism and white instigators.

See usatoday for video.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...f_George_Floyd
https://www.usatoday.com/story/...ic/3342259001/

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +8Reply
@DandyDon I’m not worried, I have a mask and there’s a beauty salon, I can hide in if necessary. I stay away from...

And you can always eat in safety at the French Laundry restaurant.
 
Gov. Newsom recommends it highly.
If you have a govt expense account, that is.

@Thinkerbell And you can always eat in safety at the French Laundry restaurant.   Gov. Newsom recommends it highly. If you...

At least Newsom apologized, unlike conservatives who said they were heroic for breaking lockdown.

"Newsom publicly apologized on Monday for attending the dinner before the pictures were published late Tuesday night, saying “the spirit of what I’m preaching all the time was contradicted.” He noted that he and his wife paid for their own meals." latimes

https://www.latimes.com/califor...ation-covid-19

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +6Reply
@vegan At least Newsom apologized, unlike conservatives who said they were heroic for breaking lockdown. "Newsom...

Yeah, right... Newsom, stricken by conscience, apologized before the pictures came out.
biggrin smilie biggrin smilie biggrin smilie He must have known what was going to happen.

I'll grant you that was better than Nancy Pelosi, who claimed she was "set up" when the video of her illicit hairdresser appointment emerged.

@Thinkerbell Yeah, right... Newsom, stricken by conscience, apologized before the pictures came out. ...

Here's the truth of the matter.
Newsom apologized on the Monday after  it emerged the previous Friday that he had violated his own directive.
 
https://ktla.com/news/californi...-dinner-party/

@Thinkerbell Here's the truth of the matter. Newsom apologized on the Monday after  it emerged the previous Friday that he...

Tu quoque fallacy, yes I'm sure some Democrats have messed up. Yet, nowhere near the extent that Republicans have flaunted the social guidelines.

"Betsy DeVos’ family — whose wealth stems from father-in-law Richard DeVos’ success in creating and running the multi-level marketing company Amway — has financed libertarian political causes with an influence comparable to the Koch brothers’ for decades." snopes
Alex Kasprak
Bethania Palma
Published 20 May 2020

For example the highly conservative Betsy Devos family aiding operation Gridlock in order to get Trump elected in 2020. Or how about Trump not wearing a mask? Yes it was hypocritical of liberals to break their own guidelines. Yet, at least the Democrats they were sheepish about it rather than openly trying to end the lock downs.

"Study finds Trump was 'the largest driver of the COVID-19 misinformation' early in pandemic" By Justine Coleman - 10/01/20 05:22 PM EDT

You are never going to top Trump's misinformation.

Image in content

https://www.snopes.com/news/202...wn-protesters/
https://thehill.com/homenews/ad...f-the-covid-19

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +7Reply
@Thinkerbell Tut-tut, Vegan... I thought you weren't supposed to use the not-as-bad fallacy.

The problem with trying to use the not as bad fallacy here is Conservatives are doing it worse as opposed to not as bad. This would only work if the alt-right was following protocols better than the liberals.

The riots at the capital are a great example.

https://thehill.com/policy/tech...least-12-hours

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +9Reply
@DandyDon Exactly....we should be terrified but they couldn’t care less.

One person was a hypocrite and apologized, compare that to what others have done. To nitpick a few of the mistakes liberals have made compared to the gross mistakes the republicans have made is a cherry picking fallacy.

"National Health Freedom Action is promoting state legislation that would block enforcement of public health measures (e.g., mask wearing and social distancing) during epidemics and other emergencies. The organization and its allies embrace junk science and have successfully passed laws protecting quacks."

https://sciencebasedmedicine.or...alth-measures/

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +7Reply
@DandyDon Only one?.....oh okay.

I can't be an expert on everything. I don't know how many democrat candidates breached lock-down protocols. Yet, I do know on average Democrats have behaved way better. Just look at the anti-lockdown protests, lead by the right.

The logically fallacy you are using is mostly tu quoque fallacy, you do it too. Yes, the Democrats have broken protocol, but not at nearly the rate and overtly as Republicans. Also, Trump promoting hydroxychloroquine for covid-19 was quackery.

"Last Wednesday, in Michigan, there was a large protest against Gov. Whitmer’s executive order to shelter in place in which thousands of people drove in front of the State Capitol Building in order to call for loosening of the restrictions. Dubbed “Operation Gridlock”, Operation Gridlock was organized by right wing groups funded by the DeVos family:" David Gorski on April 20, 2020

Image in content

From the image you can see that they are not wearing masks and are Trump supporters. So yes, some Democrats have messed up, but not nearly to the extent that Trump's people have. You are using a tu quoque fallacy.

https://www.thoughtco.com/tu-qu...allacy-1692568
https://sciencebasedmedicine.or...em-to-kill-it/
https://sciencebasedmedicine.or...holy-alliance/

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +6Reply
@vegan I can't be an expert on everything. I don't know how many democrat candidates breached lock-down protocols. Yet, I...

Yea I know, the Dems are little angels.
I can find pictures of Dems not wearing masks too, all day long.

Image in content

@DandyDon Yea I know, the Dems are little angels. I can find pictures of Dems not wearing masks too, all day...

Hmmm, here's a problem with your picture, there is no relevant detail if the covid-19 has escaped the bat caves in China. In my picture there is a clear sign that covid-19 is present in the USA because they are protesting the lockdowns. If for example, the Biden president picture was taken in 2019 then there is nothing wrong with what they are doing.

Second, they are not protesting the life saving and mutation slowing lockdown.

Now take this third picture into account.

Image in content

The protestors are protesting the Michigan lock-down, clearly Trump supporters and only some are wearing masks. I also give the source of the image the Salon.com. Leans far left, which is bias, but I couldn't find a better picture.

https://www.salon.com/2020/05/0...mbers_partner/

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +4Reply

themodels have been wrong since day 1, you still believe this CRAPOLA?

@Anonymousmouse themodels have been wrong since day 1, you still believe this CRAPOLA?

I am getting out of my specialization here about covid-19 models. Yet, I can tell you about climate models. Models are predictions, and if sixteen predictions are made, the maximum that can be true is one model. Meaning all sixteen will be false, or one will be true and the rest false.

"Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean." Skepticalscience

Models are still useful to figure out what's going on. I know this is climate change models, but I think the analogy is solid. Often models underestimate the damage, meaning there is a chance the model could be wrong and 155k people die in the USA in Jan instead.

https://skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +7Reply
@vegan I am getting out of my specialization here about covid-19 models. Yet, I can tell you about climate models. Models...

even climate change models have been wrong, every single time, climate change, covid its all tools to take away your freedom

@Anonymousmouse even climate change models have been wrong, every single time, climate change, covid its all tools to take away...

Interesting that you deny both. There is a 97% scientific consensus that climate change exists. A vocal minority states otherwise.

Image in content

The death toll is so high they are using ice rinks as temporary morgues.

"
An ice rink in Maryland has become a temporary morgue

By Audrey McNamara

May 6, 2020 / 4:19 PM / CBS News
"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ma...e-coronavirus/

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +6Reply
@vegan I am getting out of my specialization here about covid-19 models. Yet, I can tell you about climate models. Models...

“Plenty of places are doing way better for example Canada has 422.46 deaths per 100 million and Germany 418.5. Compare that to the USA's 1,065.95. About 2.5 as bad.”

So does that mean you would not be terrified if you lived in Canada or Germany, or would you require New Zealand?
I’m just trying to determine your terrification threshold.

Your question was, should “we” be terrified.
I can’t speak for others (that’s why I left the terrified option open), but for those within my immediate circle, I can say that being terrified is of no use. It’s much better to act sensibly, limit exposure, wear a mask properly, don’t touch your face until you wash your hands thoroughly, etc.

“So what if the situation is even worse in Belgium?”
Have you no compassion?
“I cried because I had no shoes until I met a man who had no feet”
Sigh… more relative privation fallacy.
BTW, the tone of your post could be styled the “It couldn’t be worse fallacy.” (I haven’t looked to see if that one is on the approved list of fallacies.)

“Furthermore, your statement doesn't nothing to undermine the models that predict January will be twice as bad as December.”

OK, I checked your thehill.com reference:
“A top COVID-19 model predicts 150,000 more deaths in the U.S. in the next month as the country heads into what is anticipated to be the worst phase of the pandemic.
Projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show the death toll over the next month could be far beyond that of December, which set a record at about 77,500.”

https://thehill.com/policy/heal...the-next-month

I clicked on the “projections” to see what they were. That led to the following website:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/...;amp;tab=trend

Image in content

The observed data stopped at Dec 20, when the smoothed number of deaths/day was 2660; after that, the projection began.
Alas for the model, the projection was already substantially wrong by January 1, predicting 3272 deaths/day. The actual figure on Jan 1 was 2469 deaths/day (7-day moving average).

https://covidtracking.com/data/...average-curves

Image in content

But let’s assume the projections were entirely correct. The worst-case projection for Jan 31 is 5248 deaths/day. An elementary calculation shows the total number of projected deaths for January would be 31 x (3272 + 5248)/2 = 132,060, substantially less than the trumpeted 150,000.
If we use the actual Jan 1 data, we get 31 x (2469 + 5248)/2 = 119,614 for the worst projected case.

So much for thehill.com's cited model.

@Thinkerbell “Plenty of places are doing way better for example Canada has 422.46 deaths per 100 million and Germany 418.5...

You do make some points about staying calm and taking all possible preventive measures. The flip side though is complacency, the covid-19 is just a bad flu type of mentality. I have to admit I did make the original post in haste and made my position difficult to defend if this angle was taken.

The problem is if I take forever trying to make the perfect post, I might never have posted. I think the weakest part of my original post is defending the "terrified" word. In retrospect vigilant, deeply concerned, or extra careful would have been better.

Nevertheless, I made the post and I am sticking to my original position. I'll go with the definition of terrified meaning deeply afraid as in being deeply concerned about the covid-19 as opposed to be oblivious.

I haven't taken a fine tooth comb to your data, but let's assume you are correct in the 132k and 120k, I rounded numbers. This doesn't disprove the original conclusion, all this is saying is so far the number is less than anticipated. 120k USA in a single month is caused to be terrified as in deeply concerned. In fact, I would say you helped verify my post and conclusion, thanks.

Furthermore, we will have to wait and see, there may be major unrest on Jan 6th that spikes the numbers. They will officially account who the winner of the election is. The model ultimately cannot be disproved until Feb 1st.

"I’m just trying to determine your terrification threshold." Thinkerbell

To be honest, I am not entirely sure. When the numbers surpassed April 2020 highs is when I started to curtail my activities, around Halloween, I would only say scared then though. To be terrified I have to convinced that there is a high likelihood of 100k deaths in a single month. So, no I would only be scared and not terrified if I lived in Germany or Canada.

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +9Reply
@vegan You do make some points about staying calm and taking all possible preventive measures. The flip side though is...

"This doesn't disprove the original conclusion, all this is saying is so far the number is less than anticipated. 120k USA in a single month is caused to be terrified as in deeply concerned. In fact, I would say you helped verify my post and conclusion, thanks."
 
I don't think so.
What it does  verify is that the 150,000 figure was an exaggeration, even by the original projections from this "top COVID-19 model," a model whose projection was already too high by 33% only 12 days into the projection, and that no one at thehill.com bothered to check any of this out.
   
"To be terrified I have to convinced that there is a high likelihood of 100k deaths in a single month."
 
I have hopeful news for you, Vegan!  If the "top COVID-19 model" is 33% above the actual number on Jan 31 (as it was on Jan 1), then the actual deaths/day on the 31st will be 3960 instead of the projected 5248.  That means the total deaths for January would be
31 x (2469 + 3960)/2 = 99,650,  which is less than 100k, in which case you would need only to be scared, rather than terrified.  biggrin smilie

@Thinkerbell "This doesn't disprove the original conclusion, all this is saying is so far the number is less than anticipated...

We will see, I want less people to become infected, hospitalized, die, and less virus mutations.

There are two new strains, one from Africa that is a long term threat, resistant to vaccines due to different spike protein, and the 2nd a more immediately threat is 50% more infectious. The more infectious variant will almost certainty become the dominant strain.

"Multiple COVID-19 variants are circulating globally. In the United Kingdom (UK), a new variant has emerged with an unusually large number of mutations. This variant seems to spread more easily and quickly than other variants. Currently, there is no evidence that it causes more severe illness or increased risk of death. " CDC

"Two new variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have been detected and are spreading. The first is the Kent variant (B.1.1.7 strain), which emerged in the UK, and has already spread to many other countries including the US. It is also now the dominant strain in the UK, responsible for more than 50% of new cases." Steven Novella on January 6, 2021 sciencebasedmedicine.org

Second, there was a riot at the capital that could end up being a superspreading event. Between the two we could have more than 150k deaths.

"

Dozens of supporters of President Donald Trump breached the security perimeter and entered the Capitol as Congress was meeting, expected to vote and affirm Joe Biden’s presidential win. They were seen fighting with officers both inside the building and outside.

Hours later, police had declared the Capitol was secured."
By ASSOCIATED PRESS 01/06/2021 06:24 PM EST politico.com

If this is not a superspreading event in the below video I do not know what one is. Between the two we could have a superspreader event on top of a 150% spreading variant. I think the model was conservative, and 200k deaths will be a more likely outcome in the month of Jan 2021 for the USA.

YouTube video thumbnail

Sources.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus...n/variant.html
https://sciencebasedmedicine.or...ov-2-variants/
https://www.politico.com/news/2...mp-riot-455639

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +6Reply
@vegan We will see, I want less people to become infected, hospitalized, die, and less virus mutations. There are two...

" I think the model was conservative, and 200k deaths will be a more likely outcome in the month of Jan 2021 for the USA."
 
And why  do you think it was conservative? Because of the new strain?
Do you suppose the makers of the "top COVID-19 model" were not aware of it?
Or is it because of the "superspreader" thugs who invaded the capitol?

@Thinkerbell " I think the model was conservative, and 200k deaths will be a more likely outcome in the month of Jan 2021 for...

The latter of the two, because of the superspreader thugs invading the capitol. I assume that at least a few had been infected with the new strain before entering the D.C.

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +8Reply
@vegan The latter of the two, because of the superspreader thugs invading the capitol. I assume that at least a few had...

And the thugs are going to cause an additional 50,000 Covid deaths nationwide, in addition to the (already inflated) "150,000" figure falsely reported by thehill.com?
 
OK, we will see (to coin a phrase). think smilie

@Thinkerbell And the thugs are going to cause an additional 50,000 Covid deaths nationwide, in addition to the (already...

I had some time to look at your graphs. I just knew it didn't invalidate my conclusion, so I skimmed over them.

First, I'm not sure why you used covidtracking.com. I'm having trouble navigating the website and I am unsure of its legitimacy. I know the World Health Organization has been around for a while which is why I use that website.

Now for Jan 1st the number was 3,761 in the USA according to WHO. Then, thankfully the number drops quite a bit. I'm not sure why you choose the 7 day average instead.

As for the model being incorrect. Well let's do the math. You are taking some sort of average, by adding the high and low together divided by two and times the number of days in January. Well, that might not be accurate let's double check.

To really double check we would add up all the predicted number of deaths from the chart. Usually I take the author's word for it. Even if the number is wrong, all it means is somebody probably messed up the chart. I once had someone try to disprove the square cube law mathematically.

Here we go. This will be long, boring, but accurate. First I notice there is a lot of numbers. That being said, I doubt this graph is for the layperson at healthdata.org.

For Jan 1st, it says mandates easing, then three numbers, current projects, another three numbers, rapid vaccine rollout ditto, and finally universal masks and a final three numbers.

That's twelve numbers just for Jan 1st. Let's start with the worst case scenario, mandates easing. Says 3271.75 followed by 2972.59 and finally 3586.45.

Since this is the worst case scenario, let's take the 3586.45 and discard the rest. Jan 2nd following the same procedure is 3,673.92.

I'll skip to the end, 6488.25 for Jan 31st. Now to get a complete picture we would have to painstakingly add up every number for every day, and hope we didn't get an error. Nevertheless the lowest day ((Jan1st + the highest day Jan 31st) /2) * 31 = 156,157.85 which is over the 150,000 deaths in the USA.

As for the model not making the correct amount on Jan 1st, models are better as average or trends. To predict the Earth will have an overall warming trend for ten years is much easier than to know which days it will rain. The same goes with this model.

Furthermore, the model does allow for a best case scenario where mandates are not relaxed, rapid vaccine rollout, and universe masks, marked as the green line and lowest. So far the first week of January has been much closer to the best case scenario.

Overall, your initial assessment was an oversimplification of the model.

https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us
https://covid19.healthdata.org/...;amp;tab=trend

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +5Reply
@vegan I had some time to look at your graphs. I just knew it didn't invalidate my conclusion, so I skimmed over them...

“Now for Jan 1st the number was 3,761 in the USA according to WHO. Then, thankfully the number drops quite a bit. I'm not sure why you choose the 7 day average instead.”
 
For the simple reason that the “top Covid model” itself uses smoothed data. I was comparing apples to apples. You seemed to understand this reason yourself, further on, when you correctly remarked, “… models are better as average or trends,” so I compared the model’s prediction with the 7-day moving average for Jan 1, rather than just the number of deaths for that particular day.
 
“Well let's do the math. You are taking some sort of average, by adding the high and low together divided by two and times the number of days in January. Well, that might not be accurate let's double check.”
 
By all means, let’s double check the math.The figure below is a detail of the projection. Let’s focus on the red dotted line, which corresponds to the “mandates easing” scenario.
 
Image in content
 
My “some sort of average” calculation makes use of the fact that the (red dotted line) projection curve is very nearly linear for the month of January. Since the total number of cases for January would be the area under the curve for that month, that area is well-represented by the area of the trapezoid outlined in black. That is where my figure of 136,000 came from.
 
Now, where did your 156,000 come from? You noted that for each point of the projection, three numbers were given:
The first number was the one that was actually plotted, and the two numbers in parentheses represent the lower and upper confidence limits associated with the first number. In most scientific work, the claimed confidence is about 95% that the true value lies below the higher limit and above the lower limit. That means the estimated probability of lying at or above the upper limit is only about 2.5%. The range of uncertainty is shown in the figure as a vertical red line marked “Projection Uncertainty.”
Your calculation in effect used the upper confidence limit for every single day of January (represented by the blue line in the figure), so naturally your trapezoid has a larger area than mine.
But… have you any idea of how unlikely your scenario is? You would already be in the range of 2.5% probability for a single day, but then you remain there for every other day of the month. That is even less likely than flipping a fair coin heads 31 times in a row.
My estimate, on the other hand, which uses the plotted most likely estimated values, allows for up and down fluctuations, which yours assuredly does not. For your estimate to be correct would require something of a miracle.
 
“Overall, your initial assessment was an oversimplification of the model.”
 
Overall, your assessment was a vastly improbable use of the model. You seem to have a penchant for seizing upon the worst conceivable cases. Indeed, you said elsewhere that you believe 150,000 is a conservative estimate for January, with an additional 50,000 deaths to be caused by the superspreader Capitol thugs.

@Anonymousmouse themodels have been wrong since day 1, you still believe this CRAPOLA?

The Covid tests results are as fraudulent as the Biden votes.
People dying in car crashes or other accidents and illnesses being listed as dying from Covid .

I know 5 people that went to get the test, they filled out paperwork while standing in line, after a couple of hours of waiting, they were told to go home, that they weren't doing anymore tests for that day.
All of them were later told they tested positive for Covid.

Only a sheep would believe that nonsense, trying to be shoved down our throats.

@DandyDon The Covid tests results are as fraudulent as the Biden votes. People dying in car crashes or other accidents and...

As for the first claim the covid-19 pandemic is real and deadly. There is a myth going around that there is a casedemic, in which there are false positives.

"Antivaccine activists and pandemic minimizers Del Bigtree and Joe Mercola are promoting the myth of the “casedemic” that claims that the massive increase in COVID-19 cases being reported is an artifact of increased PCR testing and false positives due to too sensitive a threshold to the test. As they have done for vaccines and vaccine-preventable diseases many times before, they are vastly simplifying and exaggerating a scientific controversy to cast doubt on the scope and deadliness of the pandemic.
David Gorski on November 23, 2020 "

Where is the evidence for the second claim about people dying in car crashes being listed as dying from covid-19?

Knowing five people is anecdotal evidence, they could have simply misremember the events. I highly recommend reading a skeptics guide to the universe. This book explains what is going on in this thread.

https://sciencebasedmedicine.or...-19-casedemic/
https://www.theskepticsguide.org/our-book

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +6Reply
@DandyDon The Covid tests results are as fraudulent as the Biden votes. People dying in car crashes or other accidents and...

i know some who signed up to get tested but never did, came back positive as well.

covid imho is fake

@Anonymousmouse i know some who signed up to get tested but never did, came back positive as well. covid imho is fake

You rely completely upon anecdotal evidence.

"Anecdotal evidence is a term referring to evidence that is collected in a non-scientific manner and supported by isolated, specific instances of an event. It relies on personal testimonies rather than on scientific evidence and is considered as the weakest type of evidence"

https://fallacyinlogic.com/anec...-and-examples/

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +12Reply
@Anonymousmouse i know some who signed up to get tested but never did, came back positive as well. covid imho is fake

I've heard many stories.....and I doubt those home tests they have now are any more accurate, just a tool to stack the percentages.

@DandyDon I've heard many stories.....and I doubt those home tests they have now are any more accurate, just a tool to stack...

The home tests are not quite as accurate. Yet, they are accurate enough according to the CDC.

"How accurate are the home tests?

Home tests receive the same lab processing that any other sample would, like one that was taken by a medical professional.

Because of that, we know that this portion of the test should have the same accuracy as any other test.

The difference with home tests is that they use either nasal swabs or saliva to collect the sample.

In professional settings, sampling would be done via nasopharyngeal swabs, which are collected more deeply in the nasal cavity than nasal swabs.

“This method is high value,” Rhoads said. “It can be done quickly and in an outpatient setting. Of the quick and easy-to-collect specimen types, the NP (nasopharyngeal) swab collects the most virus.”" Written by Nancy Schimelpfening on November 24, 2020 — Fact checked by Michael Crescione

The problem is that they are just stories. Humans are prone to many biases and logical fallacies. Would be very easy for a person to unconsciously let their biases decide if the tests were accurate.

https://www.healthline.com/heal...the-home-tests?

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +4Reply

Why be terrified for someone else’s benefit? Be educated and you won’t have to be terrified.

@TheSimmeringFrog Why be terrified for someone else’s benefit? Be educated and you won’t have to be terrified.

150,000 deaths in one month in the USA alone and you don't feel the need to be terrified? Elaborate on why? How should I educate myself? Do you have any sources that contradict my claim?

To give an idea of how bad the Covid-19 is it may actually surpass the deaths from smoking, the number one preventable death. "Cigarette smoking causes about one of every five deaths in the United States each year.1,6 Cigarette smoking is estimated to cause the following:1

More than 480,000 deaths annually (including deaths from secondhand smoke)" CDC

"Tobacco use is the leading preventable cause of death in the United States.1,3" CDC

This statement may have to revised to covid-19 is the leading preventable cause of death in the US.

On a side note, what is Sodahead? Your about me says "I’m the original Simmering Frog from Sodahead. " No idea what that is about.

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/dat...lity/index.htm

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +6Reply
@vegan 150,000 deaths in one month in the USA alone and you don't feel the need to be terrified? Elaborate on why? How...

how many die of the flu last year? or heart attacks, all falsely labeled covid, to make you fear, look at 2020 average death and compare it to previous years, its THE SAME, even lower

@Anonymousmouse how many die of the flu last year? or heart attacks, all falsely labeled covid, to make you fear, look at 2020...

Here's the statistics from the cdc for flu deaths for the last ten years. For 2019-2020 it was 22,000 one of the lowest. Compare that to 34k and 61k for 2018-2019 and 2017-2018.

As for heart disease the average is "About 655,000 Americans die from heart disease each year—that’s 1 in every 4 deaths.2"

I'm not sure if the data is available yet for last year. Yet, it we look the average and we keep having 75k or more deaths a month covid-19 could surpass heart disease. As for falsely labeling this as covid-19 that is conspiratorial thinking.

"94% of people who died from COVID-19 had at least one other health condition when they died." webmd Carolyn Crist

Blaming covid-19 deaths on other diseases is a myth. As for excess deaths, we are still in the middle of the pandemic, it is too soon to tell exactly what those numbers mean.

"As a side note, we are seeing fewer deaths from homicides and car accidents during shutdowns, and this is obscuring some of the rise in excess deaths from other causes." Steven Novella on July 22, 2020

While there is more deaths from covid-19 this is balanced out by less deaths from other causes. I don't think we will know the exact numbers for at least a year.

The people who benefit the most are people like Dr. Mercola

"Last week, über-quack tycoon (worth over $100 million" David Gorski on November 23, 2020

I don't know your source about 2020 having lower death rates, but here is an interesting reuters about how the calculations were taken in 2019 before anyone knew about the covid-19 disease.

"Fact check: Annual deaths data does not show 2020 as having one of the lowest rates in recent years

By Reuters Staff"

Remember they are fake experts out there like Dr. Mercola and Del Bigtree who profit from promoting quackery at your expense.

Sources.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/b...t-seasons.html
https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news...cent-of-deaths
https://sciencebasedmedicine.or...excess-deaths/
https://sciencebasedmedicine.or...-19-casedemic/
https://www.reuters.com/article...-idUSKCN26D0YP

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +7Reply
@vegan 150,000 deaths in one month in the USA alone and you don't feel the need to be terrified? Elaborate on why? How...

150,000 deaths in one month alone? State your source for that stat! Joe Biden? Sodahead is a now defunct website whose owner screwed the users big time.

@TheSimmeringFrog 150,000 deaths in one month alone? State your source for that stat! Joe Biden? Sodahead is a now defunct website...

Sorry to hear about the sodahead website. I linked the wikipedia below to make sure we are talking about the same subject. As for the 150,000 predicted deaths that is from thehill.com a center bias website and mostly factual. MSN has the same story.

The author's name is Tal Axelrod.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SodaHead.com
https://thehill.com/policy/heal...the-next-month
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/...th/ar-BB1cpL17

vegans avatar vegan Yeah You Are +8Reply
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