Average life expectancy at 80 is higher than life exptecancy at 1.

by Anonymous 5 months ago

Correct. But that still doesn't contradict the OP's point that the (broad) trend in the probability of survival over a future interval is downwards over one's lifetime. As an actuary, I'm well aware that the mortality rate is high in the perinatal period, and then tends to actually decrease slightly for the first few years (up to age of 10 perhaps), before then beginning to rise, slowly at first as an adult with an acceleration in later years.

by Anonymous 5 months ago

doesn't contradict the OP's point that the (broad) trend in the probability of survival over a future interval is downwards over one's lifetime. As a software developer, I disagree that that is the point that OP stated. "It goes down significantly as you age" does not allow for wiggle room like "it goes up sometimes, but trends down". It strictly says that as one ages, the survival odds go down.

by Anonymous 5 months ago

They did the math

by Anonymous 5 months ago

Yes, refer to point 2. I know there is a sharp increase of survivability after a few months of life.

by dlebsack 5 months ago

It doesn't end in 0%. Even if your odds of surviving the next second are still at 90%, the odds of you surviving the next minute are 0.18%, and the next hour essentially 0. It's gonna end at probably like 99.9%

by Edison77 5 months ago

The only time when you can say that is when they are already dead, which defeats the purpose. If you get shot in the head and you die instantly, you still had a chance to survive up to that very moment, but you could not see the exact second of you dying coming.

by Jhuels 5 months ago

The only time when you can say that is when they are already dead, which defeats the purpose. But we're talking about something theoretical. Obviously, it's beyond our human capability to compute in real time the survival probability of a person in the next second. But I'm picturing an all-knowing intelligence which is continuously calculating the probability of surviving the next second. If that intelligence observes a bullet just entering someone's skull with a predictable level of damage about to be produced in the next second, they can see that the person is still alive at that moment but be certain they will die in the next second. And this is my point: severe physiological events must already be well underway one second before most deaths to the point that anyone who could measure what was happening to the brain could predict that death was certain in the next second.

by Anonymous 5 months ago

It actually goes up after birth. Stays steady for a while, then drops steadily as an adult.

by Anonymous 5 months ago

On a long enough timeline, life expectancy for all living things drops to 0 From Fight Club

by SingleAd 5 months ago

Also? Water makes things wet. We usually assume a tomato will be red. Most humans have two legs.

by Anonymous 5 months ago

It would never be zero as there is always some chance to still live that second no matter how small and if your dead it won't count the next second which would be 0

by Anonymous 5 months ago

I mean there's no real precedent that I'm not immortal. Based off of how many times I've died (0 deaths per century), I think it's fair to say I'm forever at a 100% survival rate.

by Commercial-Meeting 5 months ago

Unfortunately, the sample is so small that the confidence interval on that survival estimate is 0% - 100%.

by Anonymous 5 months ago

It went back up for me when I got my health back in order

by GlumConsequence 5 months ago

Well according to my probability course the sum of the probabilities of you dying at any given moment has to equal to 1, but the probability of dying at a specific moment is 0.

by Anonymous 5 months ago